A recent poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees by the University of Iowa confirms the two political parties in the state are dominated by ideological voters with unfavorable views of the other party.
The poll also shows Iowans are politically active and are confident their votes will be counted correctly on caucus night.
The poll of 978 likely 2016 caucusgoers was conducted from Oct. 23, 2015, to Nov. 2, 2015, and Nov. 7, 2015, by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.
The poll used a 0–100 scale of likability to have likely Iowa caucusgoers evaluate different prominent political figures or groups. A zero rating indicates strong dislike and 100 a strongly favorable evaluation. The results illustrate just how differently Republicans and Democrats understand the world of politics.
Among GOP respondents, Bill Clinton gets low marks, scoring on average a 26 out of 100. Obama earns a 16 rating, tied with Socialists. Iowa Republicans also like the Tea Party (60), business leaders (61), and George W. Bush (62). They have a neutral evaluation of immigrants (50) and billionaires (53).
“While Iowa Republicans are conservative and pro-business, they are not anti-immigrant,” says Caroline Tolbert, professor of political science at the UI who co-designed the poll.
Meanwhile, Iowa Democratic caucus attendees have very different evaluations of the same political figures and groups. Obama earns high marks with an average score of 81. Bill Clinton is rated, on average, a 77, immigrants a 70, and Socialists 56. Iowa Democrats don’t like billionaires (30), the Tea Party (15), and George W. Bush (26).
“In general, Democrats have very favorable opinions of President Obama and former Democratic president Bill Clinton,” says Tolbert. “The results illustrate just how differently Republicans and Democrats understand the world of politics.”
High confidence in the caucus process
But when it comes to the results of the caucus being reported correctly, respondents are equally confident their parties will accurately report despite confusion in the Republican caucus in 2012 that delayed the final results by several weeks. Nearly every GOP caucusgoer is either very confident (58 percent) or somewhat confident (37 percent) that their vote will be counted accurately. Just 5 percent said they are not at all confident this will be the case.
“Given the challenges the GOP faced in 2012 in reporting the very close results between former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, this result suggests that most GOP voters do not expect a repeat,” says David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University in New Jersey, and former political science professor at UI.
Even more Democrats are highly confident their process will record accurate results, according to the poll, with 77 percent very confident and 20 percent somewhat confident. Only 3 percent say they are not confident there will be accurate results reporting.
The poll also found that despite its reputation as a complex process (especially for Democrats), the vast majority of likely caucusgoers are confident in their knowledge of the rules.
The caucus voting process differs between the two parties, with Republicans using a secret ballot and Democrats voting publicly. Each side was asked if in past caucuses they would have voted differently if their party used the other party’s process. Few previous attendees said it would have made a difference. Among GOP attendees, just 5 percent say they would have made a different choice in a public vote, while only 7 percent of Democrats would have made a different decision in a secret ballot. Large majorities of Democratic caucusgoers like the rules the Democratic Party uses, while significant majorities of Republicans prefer the Republican rules for the caucuses.
Iowans are active in presidential politics
The poll also found likely caucusgoers are active in Iowa presidential politics, as 22 percent have given money in the current election cycle, and 36 percent have attended a campaign activity. Fifty percent had sent or received email about the candidate and 60 percent have viewed social media posts about the candidates. About one-third had shared a social media post about the 2016 presidential candidates online.
The survey was conducted using landlines and cell phones of likely caucus participants and was based on samples of prior Republican caucusgoers from 2012 and registered voter samples of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents screened for being likely to attend the 2016 caucuses. Reported results are weighted to match estimates of gender, age, and racial makeup of caucusgoers based on 2008 in-caucus survey data (Democrats) and 2008 and 2012 public entrance polls (Republicans).
The margin of error for a Republican likely caucus-goer sample at N=493 is +/-5.6 percentage points, accounting for weighting effects.
The margin of error for Democratic likely caucus-goer sample at N=485 is +/-6 percentage points, accounting for weighting effects.